The Carbon Cycle below show the importance of the CO2 sink in
cold surface water.
More fossil fuel and less cold surface water will tip the balance.
More warm outgassing surface water is catastrophic.
Melting permafrost releasing methane
and CO2 has to be added.
Methane is a byproduct of the
decomposition of biomass. It can be trapped/frozen
as methane hydrate in a crystalline form known as Clathrates (CH4)8(H2O)46
The buildup of
Methane Hydrates makes
worse as I can se
no safety margin.
It made me add a growing number of comments and links
on this page and Page
The change in climate can be huge.
Hopeful enough people will realize what is happening before the forces of nature becomes too
July 2007 / Kaj Jensen, Ph.D.
A very little rise in temperature will be amplified
by several nonlinear feedback loops.
It has started to do irreversible change to the delicate balance of nature and
it might trigger a
major devastating oceanic methane and CO2 eruption last seen
251 million and
635 million years ago.
in this paper,
illustrates the last 50 million years as a colder and colder period.
The deep ocean temperature has especially gone down during the last 15 million
It means time to rebuild and store huge amounts of methane hydrate protected
under cold water.
not stable any more as the rising temperature
has reached a critical level.
Extra heating is now turned on as humans are storing CO2 in the atmosphere - bad
- The detonation of such a
huge "methane bomb" has the power to
remove the ice caps.
- It can be detonated by a
bomb" trapped in Arctic soil.
Higher temperature pulls the trigger.
- "a second detonator" is a submarine
landslide releasing methane e.g. triggered by
- "a third detonator" is the
The Carbon Cycle. -
Modified Carbon Cycle.
The cooling of the ocean surface and the formation of sea-ice
produce dense salty water, which sinks from the sea surface into the deep
Dense water transport CO2 down.
Meltwater is not dense.
CO2 take-up from land vegetation goes down,
when the temperature goes up !
Carbon in the atmosphere is out of balance what
increases greenhouse gases in the Energy Budget below.
Earth's annual mean radiated Energy Budget.
Greenhouse Gases has to be adjusted up in the old
illustrative figure. The net unbalance
is warming the surface, melting ice and heating up the huge amount of water in
The energy balance is illustrated in this video.
Aerosols did cover-up the increase in greenhouse gases for years.
Man-made sulfates, smog, industrial fumes etc. still do.
The burning of sulfur rich coal and fossil fuels do
cover up part of
the CO2 problem and produces damaging acid rain.
Black soot from air pollution makes bright snow and ice darker so less
sunlight is reflected - more warming.
brown clouds hanging over most of Asia
is a serious problem -
Short winters with only little white snow reflects less sunlight - more
Less reflected sunlight by white polar ice, as it melts - more warming.
major CO2 sink start to suffer - more warming.
Wildfires - more warming until CO2 returns by grow back.
and fungi releases CO2 - more warming.
continue - more warming.
Ocean turning to acid - more warming.
Flooded land reflects less sunlight - more warming.
Flooded permafrost melts and releases methane - more warming.
tropical peat swamps and old
Wetlands - more warming.
Increase in surface temperature increases water vapor as a greenhouse gas
- more warming.
Trapped under permafrost a huge amount of Greenhouse Gases starts to leak -
More moisture in the air - more warming as it is a major greenhouse
gas, but also cooling as more
white snow falls on land and on sea ice. Until snow is replaced by rain able to
melt ice at an increased speed.
Overpopulation continue - much
interviews --- Sea
Level Rise - Consequences
cap is melting so quickly
Polar ocean is soaking up less CO2
The island of Tuvalu is already pleading for
it is doomed.
Bangladesh is next.
Humans were in a position
the Carbon Cycle and Energy Budget
in a comfortable way
unbalance is now growing
if the graph to
the left and the picture above can be taken as evidence.
Evidence in the oceans.
Planet earth is probably in the
back to the old balance
hot "greenhouse earth"
but it can not support 6 billion
To allow a further rise in
is to accept a
graphs of solar irradiance and cosmic rays has recently been quite flat.
Slight lower Solar irradiance during the last 25 years did not cool the earth.
Neither did the downturn of the
11 year sunspot cycle, now at minima = 0,
the orange curve above shows that it will contribute very little.
More details are shown below.
Please look at the axis - the numbers are small
- MUCH smaller than other factors as the Insolation
graph below ! - Very important - compare W/m2 to see what matters.
The number of sunspots changes further as the position of gravity from
Saturn changes, but the number can not go under zero.
The low number of sunspots is equal to a cooler
sun as long as it last.
The Forcings above miss one factor -
it can make things even worse.
We have already lowered the sunlight reaching the earth by
dimming the sun
like dirt from volcanoes, but the temperature deep in the oceans continue
to rise killing species every day.
Some scientist are
horrified at the same time as others are claming that
it all is a "hoax" as they are only focusing on the cooling effects without
putting everything on the same scale in order to calculate the net effect.
Long-term changes in the
Earths orbit around the
changes global warming substantially as it controls
ice sheet growth in the Northern Hemisphere.
This effect is normal like a precise "clock" in time -
in earths history and it is easy to calculate.
However the normal free spinning planets are altered by passing
hitting bodies or superwaves from space and those difficult to calculate
alterations has to be added if the "clock" is used over very long time.
At summer 65N the insolation turns
up for the next 30 000 years
predicted by Jan Hollan
- a little more warming in small steps.
( The same curve shown below is calculated
by Berger - se page 24 )
The last 10 000 year downturn were
substantial, but the temperature did
Earlier downturns resulted in lower temperature and new ice ages, so new
forcings must have been added beginning 8 000 years ago.
CO2 and methane from
agriculture and from the seabed may be
Deforestation as part of early farming also contributed to offset the
falling insolation - no
glaciation as the trigger were defused.
The good thing is that a new ice age
During the last 8 000 years, humans did benefit from a rising CO2 level
and global warming, but further
exponential warming is
way to mass extinction.
The importance of the insolation can be
illustrated by the peak 130 000
years ago rising the sea level
several meters above the present level.
Just in time, the increasing temperature were stopped before a thermal
made a sharp fall in summer insulation 65N.
However the fall were so deep
that a new ice-age followed as the CO2 level
and the insolation became too low - se historical data on
page 7 fig. 2.
Take a look further back in time.
High temperature as today were canceled
by a sharp fall in insolation.
Today there will be no further fall in insolation to stop a flip to "hot
CO2 were a key factor last time earth were in "hot
house" or warm greenhouse - Homo sapiens has not been
Eruption of a super volcano
or sulfur dioxide from several
cool the earth for a few years.
Black smoke in the upper atmosphere injected by nuclear bombs, asteroids or
comets, will also
cool the earth but a lot of greenhouse gasses will also be added and they remain in the air for
When the skies clear after a few years the greenhouse effect is normally
stronger - hot climate, but the
outcome is uncertain as it depend on the actual event as e.g. the rapid
cooling 12,900 years ago.
Some explanation may be found
here as summer/winter temperatures fluctuated much more than now,
making rapid climate change 11,500 years ago.
Cooling is possible if we can takeout
the pressure of volcanoes in a new controlled way bringing CO2 from volcanoes
to a halt.
The present weakening of Earth's magnetic field is a common event in earths
history. It makes us
more vulnerable to solar eruptions and radiation from space.
The field is generated 3000 kilometers below the surface by a gigantic
electric generator driven by a flow of liquid
metals, too deep to alter the geothermal heating, but at present changing
probably for a "reversal" - not a halt.
A little part of our atmosphere might be blown away by the solar wind if the
magnetic field shuts down for some time,
but many smaller local north and south poles will probably cover the earth
during a reversal and give some protection.
Radiation will go up, so it is important to keep the man made part (nuclear
contamination) very low to give plants, animals and
humans a chance to survive.
Solar Superstorm's as in 1859 will make huge damage especially to
electrical wires and electronics when the protecting field is weak.
Stress from the deep underground alterations behind the magnetic field may increase the number of
earthquakes and make new
cracks in the
The crust or "skin of the earth" is thin and delicate but may
look solid within a short time period.
If Greenland starts to move up by losing a heavy weight of ice, the situation
can become more critical. Solid landmasses may
break up and the tectonic plates will move more than usual.
Traveling through "a not completely empty space" our solar system do
hit high energy radiation, gas and particles.
Planet earth is a "spaceship" traveling fast in formation with our sun and
neighboring stars in our galaxy and the
combined electromagnetic shield protects us. Hopeful planet earth is not
in a front position in the flight formation,
when our magnetic field is down during the coming "magnetic
field reversal" or pole shift.
The sun's magnetic field is also weakening what might partly explain the huge
of more cosmic dust.
The heating, our solar system receives from traveling through space,
might be cyclic as we rotate around the center
of our galaxy and wobble up an down through the galactic plane.
One revolution of the galactic arm containing our sun is about 225–250 million
The Sun oscillates up and down relative to the galactic plane approximately
2.7 times per orbit.
Little is known about
orbiting the milky way and flying
through interstellar clouds. Different types of change happens
on all planets in our solar system right now - some of those changes are huge
but not reported to the public.
The atmosphere probably absorbs far more cosmic rays in hot periods with e.g. a lot
of water vapor so records of cosmic
rays in the ground is probably useless without knowledge of the filtering
effect of the atmosphere and the magnetic
field. Exposed meteors landing on the earth surface do contain
radioactive traces that may give a rough picture of the
historic cosmic radiation in the path in space where planet earth travels.
The magnetosphere absorbs less hard solar radiation and cosmic rays as the
single north/south pole breaks up in several
smaller local poles until a full pole shift. It may have started 150
years ago and be in process.
Derbies from our galaxy and remains from a colliding
galaxy may hit planet earth periodically like comets orbiting the
It probably add to
warming and so do cosmic rays and a cloud of fine cosmic dust becoming extra fuel thrown on
However we have to bring down the temperature (under the dangerous tipping
point to avoid a runaway situation) using
the means available to us to
survive and to take care of other species. What else can we do.
Comments as "all planets are heating up - it is not just the earth" is useless
as we have to stop runaway heating.
Do You like to enter a plane if you know there is a 5% chance of a fatal crash
? - Do You like to travel with "spaceship earth"
if you know that there is a 5% chance that it is on the edge of turning
extreme hot like Venus ?
[ All planets in our solar system may heat up as they are in a tight
formation traveling through space, but it does not mean
that humans/CO2 is not to blame.
Even if humans did not at all contribute to global warming, we must do what we can to understand
and to avoid the
"point of no return" for human
life on planet earth using all means to protect precious living species
Even if humans only control a little rudder on "spaceship earth", we have to
use that "rudder" wisely to smoothing out
climate change and other hazards. ]
Periodically quasar like outburst of superwaves of electromagnetic energy from our
galactic center may synchronize the speed
driven by the Earth's rotation axis. The Earth's axis wobbles around the
perpendicular to its orbit with a period of
Such outburst of gamma rays and
other magnetic waves makes a huge change in
our solar system by direct radiation and
secondary by moving clouds of dust
that might end up on the sun as extra fuel or
as dust shields around the planets.
The result can be major instant change in climate - warming or freezing.
A gravity wave may be a day or two in front of major "superwaves" traveling at
the speed of light triggering huge seismic activity
and setting off volcanoes as a
The 2004 Indonesian earthquake and Tsunami might be
a small example
of what is coming.
The heliosphere bubble created by the solar wind, normally going further out
than Pluto, is giving some protection from the
harsh interstellar environment, especially from cosmic rays. It may be
pushed inwards or even blown away by superwaves.
Cosmic dust from those periodic small and huge superwaves are found in ice cores.
The size of mass in our galactic center is so huge that major outbursts are
hitting our rotating "gyro" earth very hard.
Some superwave scientists have a theory of several degrees of abrupt change in the
earth's rotation axis as a consequence.
land masses at the new equator goes substantial up and the new polar regions
The rotating earth is 25 miles / 41 km wider than it is tall .
The outburst may even remove some of our ozone layer and cancel out part of the earths
magnetic field by a ring current
of charged particles.
Even a local coronal mass ejection, as the
one in 1859, will roast a large part of ordinary modern electronics as well as
a large part of the electrical grid.
People who cares about the future should at least get the electrical grid below ground before
the next hit.
ago may relate to this theory. Going that time back in time, using
computer simulations of stars,
is what it takes to fine adjust the galactic center to be exactly in front of
the arrow of the star sign Sagittarius next to the tail of Scorpio.
Change in heat flow to oceans from inside the earth may count very little if
the average geothermal energy is below
0.1 Watt pr. square meter. However more heat are transmitted from
the Mid-Atlantic area with a thin or missing crust.
Heat from this source may be behind El Nino near the Galapagos Islands.
CO2 from seafloor spreading is probably
also low at this time in history and so is heating
Deep Sea Vents.
clouds will affect the climate in both directions depending on
height, latitude and color.
Ocean circulation is important as water is the main accumulator or buffer of
It takes several hundred years for the water to make a complete "conveyor belt"
circulation around the globe, introducing a
delay for heating up the deep sea.
Outgassing of CO2, when deep sea water returns to a hot surface, will of cause also have
a delay of several hundred years.
CO2 and temperature are connected in an amplifying loop, meaning danger when
both are high at the same time.
The mixing of water in the oceans are complicated as described in
A weakening of
the Gulf Stream may moderate the warming in North-West Europe -
and return less cold deep sea
water to the south Atlantic, where a slight increase in water temperature
around Antarctica can
start a chain reaction
as melting from the bottom is a key element.
More moisture in warmer air may add more snow on top of lower
altitude parts of the
Antarctic Ice Sheet
rise in sea level a few years as well as adding more
snow/Ice on top of the sea ice around Antarctica. However
Antarctica has already begun to melt from
the bottom and
Westerly wind circling around the south pole will probably keep the center at
high altitude very cold and very dry
for many years, but 35 M years back in time there were
Disintegration of ice is what rises sea
level fast when the process gain momentum.
Tunnels in the large part of ice below sea level may
be the most dangerous, if salty seawater enters like rivers
high melting capacity as well as
high transportation capacity.
The tidal/gravity motions of the moon might lift thick ice off the bedrock,
make cracks and act as a primitive
sucking in saltwater starting to melt ice from the warm end close to the
Passages under the ice may open up,
as the deep salty sea has a huge
uplift on ice and room for floating icebergs
or more below sea level.
Central west Antarctica may turn into a new deep sea waterway across/under
It may break holes in "the fortress of ice" opening new passages for flow of
ice from East Antarctica
sub glacial lakes.
Initially the rise in sea level may not
look big as more water is kept on land by e.g. dams. Ice fixed below sea level
leaves free space when it melts,
and so do huge amounts of "ice look-alike"
methane hydrates in the
Evaporating methane hydrate in the artic tundra my also leave space to be
filled with water.
Wilkins Ice Shelf in
Antarctica breaks up.
Arctic Ice Shelf breaks up.
action is taken, excess heat from the present unbalance in the earth's energy budget will
have to go somewhere.
The heat capacity of the atmosphere is insignificant - the energy has to go
it will heat surface water, put more water vapor in the air, melt permafrost and
melt ice at a slow speed.
Then the melting will accelerate and the oceans
to heat up slowly
more extreme weather.
More rain falling on ice will speedup the melting.
If the excess heat grows exponentially, things will happen faster and faster.
When the ice is gone, and there is no white snow to reflect sunlight, the energy unbalance
heat up the oceans
higher speed, what expand water
and rises the sea level further.
Arctic relocation is limited by an
expanding "ozone hole" hurting animals and plants.
By upwelling, the huge amount of cold water in the deep oceans can for years delay the rise in
and make the
energy unbalance look smaller than it is - until just a
little higher temperature turns the growth
curves into "an exponential runaway growth" -
very different from small linear steps each year.
man made CO2 may "only" be the trigger or igniter to release
the huge forces
It does not matter if that extra
CO2 is man made or is from e.g. large volcanoes. Instead we should discuss
balance the climate in the small comfort zone between "hot house" and "ice
house" - and act in time.
The very small
climatic variation during the last 10 000 years is not "normal" in the history
of earth - humans were lucky.
A small amount of extra CO2 and CH4 did probably stop a new ice age - very
It is not truth, when some tells that "climate change is not dangerous as it
is a natural phenomenon that has affected humanity
through the ages". No - only Homo Sapiens made it to our
time and evolved especially during the latest 10 000 years.
Our complex way of life is sensitive to a "runaway climate change" and the
temperature approaches the "runaway trigger level".
Following the ordinary lifecycle of stars, our Sun has very slowly grown a little
brighter, probably half of a percent more
than 55 million years ago, making it easier
for humans to
trigger or to
ignite a "runaway climate change" - a
old hot "greenhouse earth" - not experienced before by "homo sapiens".
Further rise in temperature combined with the release of huge amounts of
methane will remove oxygen and might
end up with a poisonous hydrogen sulfide eruption -
a look at the consequences
from earths history.
History has told that
will follow such a hot period, but chemical
of silicate rocks is a very
The "Great Ocean Conveyor Belt"
or "Atlantic Thermohaline Current (ATC)" may stop
completely, as it has
done before. It will probably only
moderate the heating for some time in northern
Europe, as we have the high effect from
greenhouse gasses and human activities.
A later temperature drop to a new ice age
can always be avoided just by adding a little greenhouse gas.
However a stop in pumping CO2 saturated
surface water down in the oceans by the "ATC-pump" is critical.
Driven by northwards wind
the warm Gulf surface current will probably remain - and so
will the most important transporter of heat - the wind.
Local changes in sea current
do not switch off the surplus heat - it is only stored somewhere
We need cold surface water
to take up CO2 as shown by the blue arrows on the first graph on this page.
El Nino/La Nina fluctuations
(Sea surface temperatures near the
do make substantial change in the climate
from year to year. However upwelling cold water from the deep ocean can
only continue as long as the supply last.
So far the formation of sea ice (thinner
than last century) generates
some cold heavy water to partly
deep ocean supply of cold water.
At present we are in a cooling La Nina phase, but the temperature of the
upwelling is turning up.
The temperature curve shows oscillations. Further historical data and
are provided by
If the upwelling stops permanently, we will be in deep
trouble very soon. Loss of cooling and loss of
food for phytoplankton.
The effect of a permanent El Nino is comparable to one
million power plants each producing 1000 mega watt - more warming.
Air contain very little energy compared to water.
A year with cold air or
warm air temperature tells
very little about
the direction of global warming.
Instead it reflects the temperature of
and the effect from "Brown Clouds".
Less heat is radiated to space during periods with a low
At present the 11 year
is in a
A bit of unnatural cooling is also provided by the depleted ozone layer at the
poles. It hurts the lower food chain
as more UV Light reduces the growth of Phytoplankton just like UV reduces the
growth of plants on land.
cooling gained pace from 1945 to
1975 as dirt from especially coal were dumped into the air
forming "brown clouds". After 1980 a lot
has been done about cleaner air from power plants, what lowered the
cooling until the industrial revolution in Asia added "the
big Asian brown cloud" - masking the present warming.
Oscillations from hot and cold water moving slowly around in the huge
oceans can also clutter up the average rising trend
in the global temperature.
Cooler surface temperature
is offset by increasing temperature in layers of seawater further down in the
- out of sight until it makes things worse later on. The
temperature of upwelling water will later be several degrees
above average when the hot El Nino state comes back.
- The rise in global surface temperature is only temporary stopped by
upwelling cold water.
A better indicator is the melting of ice shelves and glaziers
from beneath by change in water temperature.
The fundamental basic problem remain as the incoming energy radiated to planet
earth is still larger than the
total outgoing energy radiated from planet earth - the simple consequence is a
rise in temperature.
The best present monitor is the upper 700m
ocean heat content
measured by instruments.
Another monitor is the actual concentration of a greenhouse gas in the air.
Updated status for greenhouse gasses -
select the south pole for a smooth curve
the curves from
important weather stations on the map - e.g. Greenland and
Some experts has calculated
350 ppm CO2 in the
atmosphere to be a
Not even the "uptrend"
in the CO2 curve has
been stopped - so far.
More than 350ppm CO2 in the atmosphere
ocean acidification kills the food chain.
New CO2 efficient technology may help,
but there is little time and the danger
ahead has to be understood.
Can We Save Our Oceans from CO2 ?
350 ppm CO2
in the atmosphere is again the best estimate for a safe limit.
The required CO2 cut,
referring to page 25 in the
is a 25-40% CO2 cut below 1990 levels by 2020.
In addition we also have
to pay for leaking CO2 and methane from melting permafrost.
shows a very important figure of sea level versus temperature
based on earths history.
It is very different from what the press normally tells the public.
Current predictions are short-term. Final
equilibrium state may be as large as a 10–30 m sea-level rise per deg.
"Delivery" takes place with a delay, and
we are sending new orders each year. It all adds up when delivered takes
heat content of the oceans is on the way up.
The curve shows where a substantial part of global warming is going.
It is probably most of the present unbalance
be 3.6 x 1021 Joules per year in the upper 700m.
Equivalent to the energy from 1011 tons of coal per year. More than
10 tons coal per human being per year,
or each person on earth running a 10KW water heater full power non stop to
heat up the oceans.
detailed data will be available in the future. It will tell the exact
speed of global warming.
Detailed information from the deep ocean is still missing. We need that to
trace the total global
storage of surplus heat. That data is the key to track what is going
on, so it is extreme important
for everybody to know those numbers without uncertainty.
Time is extremely expensive so more measurement equipment should be placed in
every corner of
the oceans right away - why not publish the surplus heat in Joules every week
The resent drop in artic sea ice cover can also
be calculated like sun panels for heating a house.
The summer sea-ice cover has now dropped to 2 million square km below average.
It is extra heating
from a sun panel the size of 2 000 000 000 000 square meters.
The same magnitude as heating from CO2.
Do your own calculations before accepting a
higher temperature to be
Methane is already starting to leak - it has to be added to the CO2 problem.
Where will the present path take us ?
Quarter of Species Gone by 2050
Natural Hazard or Natural Resource
Is the Earth's 6th Great Mass Extinction underway ?
We must learn from past experience
55 million and 251 million years ago.
A dramatic flip from "Ice House" to "Hot House" occurred
635 million years ago.
Methane Hydrates by Miriam
Humans are now in charge of Climate Change -
Other species depends on us.
A small rudder can keep a big ship
on a safe path - so can the climate be balanced by humans.
tipping points. Action is too late
the point of no return.
Inherit 'Hot House' Planet
we are past the point of no return.
"Hot House" is just old days in
More Infra Red Light is radiated from "Hot House Earth". It will
establish a new balance in the energy budget.
The "Overpopulation" problem is solved by natural regulation.
As before some species will survive.
we are in
The 11th Hour
How can focus be switched from day to day news
to the real problems such as
Abrupt Climate Change Is Upon Us
and other videos by the Royal Society. - From
icehouse to hothouse.
Enjoy life while you can.
Humans has Overpopulated the Earth.
However our brain may solve the climate problem in the last minute.
Feedback Dynamics and the Acceleration of Climate
summers ice-free 'by 2013'
Yesterday El Nino -
Latest sea Temp.
sea ice - Sea
Ice 3 -
Antarctic topographic map
Sea Temp. -
Ice news -
Antarctica Glaciers in retreat
James Hansen ,
How Can We Avert Dangerous Climate Change
The Daily Climate ]